Course material · Lesson 05 · Brand vs Performance · P&L view

What does brand investment do to EBIT — quarter by quarter?

The CAC calculator shows the marketing story. This one shows the P&L story. Same J-curve, same inputs, wrapped in the full quarterly P&L: quarterly EBIT dips below the baseline through the first year of the transition, then recovers and grows past it as the compound phase kicks in. The point is to put two numbers on the table before the CFO meeting: how much EBIT the programme foregoes on the way down, and how much it adds on the way back up.

Your inputs
Marketing inputs are shared with the CAC calculator. P&L inputs describe your business at steady state — the calculator computes your customer base automatically from spend ÷ CAC ÷ churn.
Marketing
Q1 brand share
Steady state
Ramp (quarters)
Presets:

Monthly total marketing spend across all channels — paid media, agency fees, production, sponsorships. The calculator holds this constant across 36 months; only the split between brand and performance changes.

Blended CAC — total marketing spend ÷ new customers, all channels combined. Use your 3-month rolling average, not a single month. This is the performance-only baseline the J-curve starts from.

Most transitions ramp in over one to four quarters rather than flipping to the target split on day one. Ramping gives the team time to learn creative and channel mix, and it reduces the size of the cumulative EBIT gap before the compound phase kicks in.

Q1 brand share — where you start on day one. A soft start (20–35%) barely disrupts existing performance economics.

Steady state — where you land after the ramp. Binet & Field's evidence base points to 60% brand for mature categories (46% for B2B per Dawes).

Ramp duration — how many quarters to reach steady state. 1Q = flip a switch. 4Q = year-long transition (most CFO-friendly). 8Q+ = phased multi-year commitment.

The trade-off: softer ramp = smaller cumulative EBIT gap, but the compound benefit arrives later. Steeper ramp = deeper gap, faster payback. The presets show four typical shapes.

Category pacing changes phase durations. FMCG buyers cycle weekly (fast payback); B2B SaaS contracts are 12–36 months (slow payback). For long-cycle categories, the 36-month window shows only the beginning of Phase 3 — the compound effect keeps compressing CAC into year 4 and 5.

P&L structure

Average quarterly revenue per active customer. For DTC repeat commerce: AOV × orders/quarter. For subscription: monthly subscription fee × 3. For B2B: annual contract value ÷ 4. Use gross revenue before returns; the calculator applies gross margin next.

Category benchmarks: Beauty/food subscription €30–60/qtr · Fashion DTC €60–150/qtr · SaaS SMB €150–600/qtr · SaaS mid-market €1,500–15,000/qtr · Enterprise SaaS €25,000+/qtr.

Gross margin = (Revenue − COGS) ÷ Revenue. Includes product costs, fulfilment, payment fees, hosting (for SaaS). Excludes marketing and overheads. Benchmarks: Grocery/FMCG 25–35%, DTC apparel/beauty 55–70%, B2B SaaS 70–85%, B2B services 40–55%.

Quarterly customer churn. Fraction of your active customer base that stops buying / cancels each quarter. 8%/quarter ≈ 30%/year annual churn (typical DTC repeat commerce). SaaS SMB: 3–5%/quarter. SaaS mid-market: 1.5–3%/quarter. Enterprise SaaS: < 1%/quarter. Grocery/CPG: essentially none at the household level for staples; the "churn" is category exit or lapse.

The calculator initialises your customer base at steady state: new customers per month ÷ monthly churn. Change the number to see how retention amplifies or dampens the compound phase.

Fixed overheads per quarter — team salaries, rent, tech stack, G&A, everything below the marketing line that doesn't scale with volume in the short term. The calculator holds this constant across both scenarios; the interesting variable is what the marketing shift does to EBIT above the overhead line.

Cumulative EBIT impact over 12 quarters
1.2M
vs. staying performance-only. The business remains profitable throughout; this number is the difference in EBIT accumulated over 12 quarters, not a loss.
Biggest quarterly EBIT gap
−€49K
Q4 — that quarter's EBIT below baseline
Run-rate crossover
Q9
First quarter combined EBIT ≥ baseline
Terminal Q12 EBIT delta
+€79K
Combined vs baseline at quarter 12
Cumulative payback
Beyond Q12
When cumulative Δ crosses positive
Deepest cumulative EBIT gap
€251K
Lowest point of the cash bridge · at Q8 · business stays profitable throughout
EBIT foregone (12Q)
€251K
Sum of the quarters where combined EBIT is below baseline
EBIT gained (12Q)
€184K
Sum of the quarters where combined EBIT is above baseline
Payback ratio (12Q)
0.73×
Gained ÷ foregone · >1.0× means net-positive by Q12
Return on the shift (annualised) / IRR
n/a
IRR on the quarterly EBIT-vs-baseline stream
Quarterly EBIT — baseline vs combined
Navy dashed = performance-only baseline (flat). Orange = brand + performance combined. The dip through the first year is the transition period. The crossover is when the combined model starts earning more EBIT per quarter than the baseline.
Cumulative EBIT delta
Cumulative gap between combined and baseline EBIT, quarter by quarter. Red = cumulative EBIT is below baseline (foregone). Green = cumulative EBIT is above baseline (gained). The zero-crossing is when the programme has fully paid itself back.
P&L snapshots — five key quarters
First column = performance-only steady state (holds across all 12 quarters). Next four columns = the combined-scenario P&L at four points on the curve. Every EBIT number is positive — the Δ row below shows how much above or below baseline that quarter lands.
P&L line Q0Baseline Q2Phase 1 stall Q5Flywheel Q8Compound approach Q12Sustained
The CFO conversation, quantified